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April 2026 Consumer Dashboard
Here are the latest insights from Goldman Sachs Research on the financial health of the US consumer.
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May 2026 Consumer Dashboard
June 8, 2026
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Here are the latest insights from Goldman Sachs Research on the financial health of the US consumer today.
Goldman Sachs Research expects that growth headwinds from the war in Iran will moderately slow job growth and continues to see risks of more labor market weakening if higher energy prices create a larger drag on growth or AI-related job losses prove larger than expected.
Let’s take a closer look at their latest analysis.
Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE)
The core PCE price index increased 0.24% in April, slightly below expectations. Year-over-year core PCE inflation ticked up to 3.29% in April.
Headline PCE increased 0.40% in April, and the year-over-year rate increased to 3.77%.
Spending
Spending has remained resilient. Personal spending rose 0.5% in April, in line with consensus expectations. Real personal spending rose 0.1%, reflecting a 0.2% increase in real services spending but a 0.1% decline in real goods spending.
Core retail sales (ex-autos, gasoline, and building materials, month-over-month seasonally adjusted) rose 0.5% in April, slightly above consensus expectations.
Headline retail sales rose 0.5%, in line with consensus expectations. The level of core retail sales was revised up by 0.4% in March. Based on the details of the PCE and CPI reports, Goldman Sachs Research estimates real core retail sales rose at a 4.3% three-month annualized rate through April.
Income
Personal income was flat in April, below expectations and partially reflecting a 0.2 percentage points drag from a decline in payments from the Farmer Bridge Assistance program, which had boosted personal income in March.
While the boost from higher tax refunds and lower tax payments from the OBBBA (One Big Beautiful Bill Act) appears to have provided an almost $140 billion boost to household income during the 2026 tax-filing season, Goldman Sachs Research expects that higher energy prices will erode household spending power for the rest of the year, particularly for lower-income households that spend a larger share of their budget on food and energy.
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Wealth
Household balance sheets are still strong, and the net worth-to-disposable personal income ratio remains near its all-time high, especially after the recent rebound in equity valuations.
The saving rate declined 0.6 percentage points to 2.6%, the lowest level since June 2022.
Debt
Consumer credit growth ticked up by 0.3 percentage points to 2.6% on a year-over-year basis and by 0.5 percentage points to 2.7% on a 6-month annualized basis in March (possibly reflecting an increase in credit utilization to smooth the energy price shocks). But home equity loan growth slowed significantly (+1.4% 12-week annualized average through May 13).
Although household leverage and debt servicing costs remain low by historical standards, 90+ day credit card and subprime auto loan delinquencies remain elevated relative to historical levels.
Consumer confidence
The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index was revised down by 3.4 points to 44.8 in its May final report, below expectations and the lowest level in the survey’s history.
“The cost of living continues to be a first-order concern, with 57% of consumers spontaneously mentioning that high prices were eroding their personal finances, up from 50% last month,” according to the report. Consumers also expressed worries that inflation would continue to increase in the long run.
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index dropped 0.7 points to 93.1 in May as “the inflationary impacts of the war in the Middle East intensified.”
This article is for informational purposes only and is not a substitute for individualized professional advice. Articles on this website were commissioned and approved by Marcus by Goldman Sachs®, but may not reflect the institutional opinions of The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., Goldman Sachs Bank USA, Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC or any of their affiliates, subsidiaries or divisions. Information and opinions expressed in this article are as of the date of this material only and subject to change without notice. This article is not a product of Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. The information contained in this article does not constitute a recommendation from any Goldman Sachs entity to the recipient, and Goldman Sachs is not providing any financial, economic, legal, investment, accounting, or tax advice through this article or to its recipient. Neither Goldman Sachs nor any of its affiliates makes any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or any information contained in this article and any liability therefore (including in respect of direct, indirect, or consequential loss or damage) is expressly disclaimed. You are not permitted to publish, transmit, or otherwise reproduce this information, in whole or in part, in any format without the express written consent of Goldman Sachs. This foregoing restriction includes, without limitation, using, extracting, downloading or retrieving this information, in whole or in part, to train or finetune a machine learning or artificial intelligence system.
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