April 2026 Consumer Dashboard

Here are the latest insights from Goldman Sachs Research on the financial health of the US consumer today.

Real GDP grew 2.0% annualized in the first quarter, somewhat below consensus expectations and reflecting a surprisingly small boost from government spending after the shutdown drag in the fourth quarter. 

Higher headline inflation due to the recent rise in energy prices is set to erode household spending power, according to Goldman Sachs Research. 

Let’s take a closer look at their latest analysis. 

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE)

Core PCE rose 0.29% month over month and 3.2% year over year in March, in line with expectations.

Headline PCE rose 0.66% and 3.5% year over year, reflecting a 12% month-over-month increase in energy prices.

Spending

Personal spending rose 0.9% in March, in line with expectations. Real personal spending rose 0.2%, reflecting a 0.6% increase in real goods spending and a 0.1% increase in real services spending. 

Core retail sales (ex-autos, gasoline, and building materials, month-over-month seasonally adjusted) rose by 0.7% in March, well above expectations. Headline retail sales rose 1.7%, also above expectations and reflecting higher gasoline spending as a result of higher oil prices. 

Core retail sales growth was broad-based, with the largest increases at furniture stores (+2.2%), general merchandise stores (+1.0%), and non-store retailers (+1.0%). Higher gasoline spending may have boosted general merchandise store sales because some of those stores sell gasoline too. Only miscellaneous store retailers saw nominal retail sales decline in March (-0.9%). 

Income

Personal income rose 0.6% in March, above expectations. About 40% ($60 billion) of the increase in personal income in March reflected higher farm proprietors’ income, reflecting payments from the Farmer Bridge Assistance program. 

Wealth

Household balance sheets are still strong, and the net worth-to-disposable personal income ratio remains near its all-time high, especially after the recent rebound in equity valuations. 

The saving rate declined by 0.3 percentage points to 3.6% in March, but Goldman Sachs Research economists forecast a slight increase to 4.1% by end-2026 and 4.7% by end-2027 on the back of a stronger precautionary saving motive due to labor market and geopolitical concerns.

Debt

Consumer credit growth ticked up by 0.2 percentage points to 2.3% on a year-over-year basis and by 0.3 percentage points to 2.6% on a 6-month annualized basis in February.

Home equity loans continue to grow at a more rapid pace (+4.5% 12-week annualized average through April 15). 

Although household leverage and debt servicing costs remain low by historical standards, 90+ day credit card and subprime auto loan delinquencies remain elevated relative to historical levels.

Consumer confidence

The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index fell by 3.5 points to 49.8 in its final April report. 

In its May preliminary report, the index declined by somewhat more than expected—landing at 48.2, the lowest level in its history if it holds up in the final report. 

The University of Michigan noted that “about one-third of consumers spontaneously mentioned gasoline prices and about 30% mentioned tariffs. Taken together, consumers continue to feel buffeted by cost pressures, led by soaring prices at the pump.” 

Over at the Conference Board, the Consumer Confidence Index saw a slight bump, coming in at 92.8 for April (from 92.2 in March)—against expectations for a decline.  

The Conference Board noted that consumer comments about “prices, oil and gas, and war increased in frequency compared to March—a likely signal of consumers’ underlying worries about how the war in the Middle East will impact their pockets.” 

However, the press release also highlighted that “a two-week ceasefire and a rebound in stock market indices within the survey-sample period likely helped ease concerns about financial indicators somewhat in April after spiking in March.”