Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, decreased by 0.02% in June (+2.59% year over year), below expectations, reflecting broad-based declines across categories.
Headline CPI declined by 0.42% month over month (+3.53% year over year), also below expectations, reflecting a 5.7% decline in energy prices.
Let’s take a closer look at Goldman Sachs Research’s breakdown of the latest data.
Auto insurance prices declined by 2.0% month over month, the second consecutive large monthly decline, weighing on the core rate by 7 basis points.
Wireless phone services prices declined 3.1% month over month, reversing a large increase in May, weighing on the core by 5 basis points.
Hotel prices declined by 2.8% month over month, likely reflecting payback from the previous boost from the World Cup, weighing on the core by 4 basis points.
Apparel and medical care services prices also declined by 0.6% and 0.1% month over month, weighing on the core by 2 basis points and 1 basis point, respectively.
On the firmer side, software and accessories prices, which have a much larger weight in core PCE than core CPI, increased by 2.2% month over month.
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