July 16, 2026
Here are the latest insights from Goldman Sachs Research on the financial health of the US consumer today.
June saw an uptick in consumer sentiment, as gas prices continue to moderate.
Despite the slight bump in consumer confidence, however, worries about the cost of living and the job market remain top of mind.
Let’s take a closer look at some of the key economic numbers from recent months.
The core PCE price index increased 0.32% in May, in line with expectations, and the year-over-year rate rose to 3.41%.
Headline PCE increased 0.45% in May, and the year-over-year rate increased to 4.07%.
Personal spending rose 0.7% in May, slightly above consensus expectations. Real personal spending rose 0.3%, reflecting a 0.2% increase in real services spending and a 0.5% increase in real goods spending.
Core retail sales (ex-autos, gasoline, and building materials, month-over-month seasonally adjusted) rose 0.5% in June, in line with consensus expectations. Sales growth was strongest at non-store retailers (+1.9%) and sporting goods stores (+1.3%), and weakest at health and personal care stores (-0.8%).
Headline retail sales rose 0.2%, also in line with consensus expectations, partly reflecting a 5.3% month-over-month decline in gasoline spending.
Based on the details of the PCE and CPI reports, Goldman Sachs Research estimates real core retail sales rose at a 7.1% three-month annualized rate through June.
Personal income rose 0.7% in May, above consensus expectations and partially reflecting a 0.2 percentage points boost from a second round of payments from the Farmer Bridge Assistance program.
Employee compensation rose 0.4%, rental income rose 0.7%, personal asset receipts were flat, and transfer payments rose 0.6%. Year-over-year real disposable personal income growth was flat in May.
The saving rate was unchanged at an upwardly-revised 3.0%, reflecting downward revisions to consumer spending in prior months.
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The number of job openings increased slightly in May (+9,000 to 7.594 million) from a downwardly-revised level in April, beating expectations.
Job openings increased the most in the leisure and hospitality industry (+95,000) and declined the most in the private education and health care industry (-119,000). The quits (1.9%) and hiring (3.3%) rates were unchanged in May, while the layoff rate ticked up by 0.1 percentage points to 1.1% from a downwardly-revised April level (-0.1 percentage points to 1.0%).
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