July 2025 Consumer Dashboard

Income 

Real personal income increased by 0.3% in June. The increase reflected an increase in transfer receipts, employee compensation, and proprietor’s income, flat asset income, and a decline in rental income.  

Goldman Sachs Research continues to expect that higher inflation and slower job growth will weigh on real income through year-end and forecast only 1.3% real income growth in 2025 on a Q4/Q4 basis (versus 2.3% in 2024). 

There could be continued headwinds for lower-income households from rising prices and cuts to Medicaid and SNAP benefits starting in the fourth quarter of 2025. Goldman Sachs Research forecasts only 0.9% real income growth for the bottom income quintile in 2025 on a Q4/Q4 basis.

Wealth 

Household balance sheets are still strong as the net-worth-to-disposable personal income ratio and household home equity remain elevated. That said, Goldman Sachs Research observes that net worth growth slowed to 3.8% year over year in the first quarter of 2025 (compared to 9.1% in the same quarter last year). Wealth accumulation is slowing across all income and wealth groups. 

The saving rate was unchanged at 4.5% in June and remains broadly in line with the level consistent with economic fundamentals (e.g., strong household balance sheets, healthy labor market). 

Goldman Sachs Research forecasts that the saving rate may edge down to 4.3% by the end of 2025 before ticking back up to 4.7% toward the end of 2026.

Debt 

Consumer credit growth remained soft in May, rising 2% year over year, although home equity loans continue to grow at a healthy pace.   

Household leverage and debt servicing costs remain low by historical standards, and households are still not utilizing their excess borrowing capacity to grow spending. 

Credit card delinquency rates continued to level off through the first quarter of 2025, with new seriously delinquent and new delinquent credit card balances moderating, although 90-day delinquencies ticked up. 

Prime auto loan delinquencies ticked down in June, but subprime 60- and 90-day auto delinquencies ticked up and remained elevated.

Consumer confidence

The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index declined by 3.1 points to 58.6 in the August preliminary report. The University of Michigan noted that the “deterioration [in sentiment] largely stems from rising worries about inflation.”

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index saw a 2-point bump, rising to 97.2 in July  (from 95.2 in June). According to the report, “pessimism about the future receded somewhat, leading to a slight improvement in overall confidence” in July. 

Goldman Sachs Research expects real GDP growth to slow to 1.1% in 2025 on a Q4/Q4 basis as higher tariffs weigh on disposable income, consumer spending, and business investment, and job growth slows.