November 2025 Consumer Dashboard

Here are the latest insights from Goldman Sachs Research on the financial health of the US consumer today.

Following a delay in official government spending data, the September retail sales report showed softer spending growth. However, alternative spending data suggests that spending picked up in October and remained reasonably resilient through the government shutdown.

Goldman Sachs Research expects real spending growth will soften in Q4 in response to weak job growth but forecasts reasonably healthy spending growth of 1.8% in 2025 and 1.7% in 2026 (both on Q4/Q4 bases).

Let’s take a closer look at Goldman Sachs Research’s analysis.

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE)

The September core PCE index rose 0.20% month-over-month and the year-over-year rate declined to 2.83%. Core goods prices rose 0.18% in September and core services prices rose 0.20%.

Headline prices rose 0.27% month over month and 2.79% year over year. Both market-based core PCE and core services PCE excluding housing rose 0.22%.

Spending 

Consumer spending rose 0.3% in September, in line with expectations. Real personal spending was flat in September, reflecting a 0.3% increase in real services spending but a 0.4% decline in real goods spending, and was revised down by 0.2 percentage points in August.

Income

Personal income increased by 0.4% in September, slightly above expectations.

Employee compensation rose 0.4%, and proprietors’ income declined 0.1%. Rental income rose 0.1%, asset receipts rose 0.7%, and transfer receipts rose 0.3%.

Goldman Sachs Research forecasts that slower job growth and elevated inflation will weigh on income growth in the fourth quarter of 2025. Our economists forecast 1.8% real income growth in 2025 on a Q4/Q4 basis (vs. 2.4% in 2024).  

Goldman Sachs Research expects real income growth will pick up next year on the back of a pickup in job growth, new tax cuts, and a fading inflation headwind from tariffs, forecasting 2.3% real income growth in 2026 on a Q4/Q4 basis. 

Our economists anticipate that new tax cuts included in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act will lead to outperformance among middle-income households in 2026, while cuts to Medicaid and SNAP benefits will likely disproportionately weigh on real income growth for households in the bottom income quintile.

Wealth

Household balance sheets are strong, and the net worth-to-disposable personal income ratio remains near its all-time high on the back of equity price gains.

Net worth growth rose to 6.1% year over year in the second quarter of 2025 (vs. 3.8% in first quarter of 2025), with larger gains among higher net worth and income households.

The saving rate was unchanged at 4.7% in September. 

Goldman Sachs Research forecasts that the saving rate will rise back to 5.0% by end-2025 and 5.5% by end-2026. 

Debt 

Consumer credit growth remained soft in September (+2.2% year over year; +2.7% 6-month avg. annualized rate), although home equity loans continue to grow at a rapid pace (+8.0% 12-week annualized average). 

Household leverage and debt servicing costs remain low by historical standards, and credit card delinquency rates continued to level off through the third quarter of 2025. 

Auto loan delinquency rates remain elevated, especially for vintages originated in 2022 and 2023.

Consumer confidence

The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index saw a small bump in its preliminary report for December, landing at 53.3 (vs. 51.0 in November). Per the report, “consumers see modest improvements from November on a few dimensions, but the overall tenor of views is broadly somber, as consumers continue to cite the burden of high prices.”

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index noted a sharp decline in November with a 6.8-point drop to 88.7 from 95.5 in October, its lowest level since April. According to the Conference Board, consumers had reported “reduced confidence across jobs, incomes, and financial situations for both now and in the future.”