We are excited to share insights from the Wealth Management Investment Strategy Group (ISG).
Looking back at November, it was an eventful month for markets and the economy - stocks rallied, Treasuries strengthened, and credit spreads tightened, indicating growing confidence in the creditworthiness of corporations.
After a weak October, stocks rallied in November with the S&P 500 and the small-cap Russell 2000 each finishing the month up 9.1%.
Bond prices also rallied, with the 10-year US Treasury yield settling at 4.2% after briefly touching 5% in October. The VIX Index, which measures volatility and is often referred to as the "fear gauge" fell to its lowest level since late 2019, before the pandemic.
Why? A cooling economy.
After robust economic growth in Q3, early Q4 data show signs of slowing which points to a possible soft landing.
The fall in Treasury yields and better-than-expected Q3 corporate earnings helped fuel the rally in stocks. In addition, the Treasury Department slowed the pace of increases in the size of government bond auctions which alleviated concerns over the rising supply of bonds.
Recent inflation data, published on November 30, continued to ease towards the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) 2% target rate. ISG believes inflation will keep trending down due to lower housing costs and a gradual further decline in wage growth.
This memo and the views within are based on the Wealth Management Investment Strategy Group's monthly Macro Monitor - a publication focused on the team's global macroeconomic views.
This article is for informational purposes only and is not a substitute for individualized professional advice. Articles on this website were commissioned and approved by Marcus by Goldman Sachs®, but may not reflect the institutional opinions of The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., Goldman Sachs Bank USA, Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC or any of their affiliates, subsidiaries or divisions.