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February 2026 CPI Update
While core CPI increased 0.22% month over month in February, the year-over-year rate edged down to 2.46%.
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March 2026 Consumer Dashboard
April 10, 2026
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Here are the latest insights from Goldman Sachs Research on the financial health of the US consumer today.
Spending headwinds from higher inflation due to the recent energy price surge are likely to weigh on spending growth for the rest of the year, according to Goldman Sachs Research.
Let’s take a closer look at Goldman Sachs Research’s analysis.
Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE)
The core PCE price index rose 0.37% in February, in line with consensus expectations, and the year-over-year rate edged down to 2.97%.
Core goods prices rose 0.84% (the fastest pace since January 2022), likely reflecting continued tariff passthrough and a 6.5% month-over-month increase in software prices, the second-largest since 1980 (after a 7.0% increase in December 2025).
Core services prices rose 0.22%. Headline PCE rose 0.38% in February, reflecting a 0.45% increase in food and energy prices.
Spending
Personal spending rose 0.5% in February, and January spending growth was revised down 0.1 percentage point to 0.3%.
Core retail sales increased 0.5% in February, somewhat above consensus expectations. The level of core retail sales was revised down by 0.2% in January.
Core retail sales were strongest at health and personal care stores (+2.3%) and clothing stores (+2.0%). Based on the details of the PCE and CPI reports, Goldman Sachs Research estimates real retail sales declined at a 1.3% three-month annualized rate through February.
Income
Personal income declined 0.1% (or $18 billion) in February, against expectations for an increase.
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Wealth
Household balance sheets are still strong, and the net worth-to-disposable personal income ratio remains near its all-time high despite the recent pullback in equity prices.
The saving rate declined to 4.0% through end-2025 but rose to 4.5% in January.
Goldman Sachs Research forecasts further increases to 4.6% by end-2026 and 5.0% by end-2027, reflecting a stronger precautionary saving motive due to a softer labor market and geopolitical concerns.
Debt
Consumer credit growth ticked down by 0.1 percentage point to 2.2% on a year-over-year basis and by 0.2 percentage point to 2.4% on a 6-month annualized basis in January, although home equity loans continue to grow at a more rapid pace (+7.9%, 12-week annualized average through March 18).
Although household leverage and debt servicing costs remain low by historical standards, 90+ day credit card and subprime auto loan delinquencies continue to rise above pre-pandemic levels.
Consumer confidence
The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index declined by more than expected to 47.6 in the April preliminary report, its lowest level in its history if it holds in the final report. The report noted that most interviews were completed prior to the announcement of a temporary ceasefire in Iran and that “economic expectations will likely improve after consumers gain confidence that the supply disruptions stemming from the Iran conflict have ended and gas price have moderated.”
Over at the Conference Board, the Consumer Confidence Index saw a slight increase of 0.8 points in March, coming in at 91.8 (from 91.0 in February).
According to the Conference Board: “Consumer confidence ticked up again in March, as a modest improvement in consumers’ views of current conditions outweighed a slight downshift in expectations for the future.”
This article is for informational purposes only and is not a substitute for individualized professional advice. Articles on this website were commissioned and approved by Marcus by Goldman Sachs®, but may not reflect the institutional opinions of The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., Goldman Sachs Bank USA, Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC or any of their affiliates, subsidiaries or divisions. Information and opinions expressed in this article are as of the date of this material only and subject to change without notice. This article is not a product of Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. The information contained in this article does not constitute a recommendation from any Goldman Sachs entity to the recipient, and Goldman Sachs is not providing any financial, economic, legal, investment, accounting, or tax advice through this article or to its recipient. Neither Goldman Sachs nor any of its affiliates makes any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or any information contained in this article and any liability therefore (including in respect of direct, indirect, or consequential loss or damage) is expressly disclaimed. You are not permitted to publish, transmit, or otherwise reproduce this information, in whole or in part, in any format without the express written consent of Goldman Sachs. This foregoing restriction includes, without limitation, using, extracting, downloading or retrieving this information, in whole or in part, to train or finetune a machine learning or artificial intelligence system.
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