January 2026 Consumer Dashboard

Here are the latest insights from Goldman Sachs Research on the financial health of the US consumer today.

The November 2025 retail sales report showed resilient solid growth, as monthly headline retail sales increased by 0.6% and core retail sales increased by 0.4% in both nominal and real terms.

Goldman Sachs Research expects solid spending growth to extend into 2026, as tax cuts from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) are expected to add roughly $100 billion to household tax refunds during the February-April tax-filing season.

Let’s take a closer look at Goldman Sachs Research’s analysis.

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE)

The core PCE index rose 0.16% in November 2025 and 0.21% in October 2025 month-over-month, corresponding to a year-over-year rate of 2.79% in November, in line with expectations. September core PCE was revised down by 1 basis point to 0.19% month-over-month.

Headline prices rose 0.21% in November and 0.16% in October month-over-month, corresponding to a year-over-year rate of 2.77% in November, in line with expectations.

Spending

Consumer spending rose 0.5% in November, in line with consensus expectations, and rose 0.5% in October, well above Goldman Sachs Research’s expectations.

Real personal spending rose 0.3% in both October and November, reflecting a 0.2% increase in real services spending and a 0.5% increase in real goods spending on average across the two months.

Income

Personal income increased by 0.3% in November, somewhat below expectations, and 0.1% in October, somewhat below Goldman Sachs Research’s expectations. 

On average in October and November:

• Employee compensation rose 0.3%.
• Rental income rose 0.3%.
• Transfer income rose 0.1%.
• Asset income was flat.
• Proprietors’ income declined 0.1%.

Wealth

Household balance sheets are strong, and the net worth-to-disposable personal income ratio remains near its all-time high on the back of strong equity price gains.

The saving rate declined to 3.5% in November (vs. 4.0% in September).

But Goldman Sachs Research expects it will rise back to 4.3% by end-2026 and 4.5% by end-2027.

Debt

Consumer credit growth ticked up by 0.2 percentage points to 2.4% on a year-over-year basis and 0.1 percentage points to 2.0% on a 3-month annualized basis in November, although home equity loans continue to grow at a more rapid pace (+5.0% 12-week annualized average through January 14).

Household leverage and debt servicing costs remain low by historical standards.

Delinquency rates appear to be stabilizing, including rates for auto loans, but remain elevated relative to pre-pandemic levels.

Consumer confidence

The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index rose 3.5 points, coming in at 56.4 in its final report for January. “National sentiment remains more than 20% below a year ago,” according to the report, which also noted that consumers remain sensitive to “high prices and the prospect of weakening labor markets.”

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index saw a 9.7 drop in January, landing at 84.5 (94.2 in December). 

According to the Conference Board: “Confidence collapsed in January, as consumer concerns about both the present situation and expectations for the future deepened, […] driving the overall index to its lowest level since May 2014 (82.2)—surpassing its COVID-19 pandemic depths.”