August 2026 Consumer Dashboard

Here are the latest insights from Goldman Sachs Research on the financial health of the US consumer today.

Consumer confidence dipped in August as inflation worries persist. The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 51.7 in its final August report (vs. 55.2 in July).

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index decreased by 0.8 point to 89.4 in August from a downwardly revised July reading (-0.6 point to 90.2), slightly below expectations and its lowest level since January.

The survey’s measure of 12-month ahead inflation expectations increased by 0.2 percentage points to 5.8% following two consecutive monthly declines. The Conference Board noted that consumers’ write-in responses were “slightly more pessimistic in August,” as “references to prices in general—and oil and gas specifically—remain elevated.”

Let’s take a closer look at some of the key economic numbers from recent months.  

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE)

The core PCE price index increased 0.25% in July, slightly above expectations, and the year-over-year rate was unchanged at 3.34%.

Headline PCE increased 0.16% in July, and the year-over-year rate edged down to 3.70%. 

Goldman Sachs Research expects core PCE inflation of 3.0% in December 2026, boosted by the effects of tariffs, energy price passthrough, and AI demand exaggerated by measurement issues, with it falling to near 2% in 2027 as those effects subside.

Spending

Personal spending rose 0.2% in July, also above expectations, reflecting an increase in spending on services that was partly offset by a decrease in spending on goods driven by a decline in gasoline and energy goods spending. 

Core retail sales fell 0.4% in July, well below expectations, and the level of core retail sales was revised down 0.4% in June. The sequential weakness in July was likely exaggerated by an early Amazon Prime Day, which normally occurs in July but occurred in June this year: the non-store retailer category declined 2.2% and contributed -0.4 percentage points to core retail sales.

Nevertheless, Goldman Sachs Research continues to expect consumer spending growth to slow from the solid pace of the first half of 2026, as the boost to consumer cashflow from larger-than-usual tax refunds that supported spending earlier this year fades and the headwind from higher energy prices remains. 

Income

Personal income increased 0.4% in July, above expectations.

The saving rate increased 0.4 percentage points to 3.0%, and Goldman Sachs Research expects it to increase further to 3.5% by end-2026 on the back of stronger precautionary motives.

Debt

Consumer credit growth ticked up by 0.1 percentage points to 2.4% on a year-over-year basis and down by 0.1 percentage points to 2.7% on a 6-month annualized basis in June, although home equity loan growth remained robust (+8.9% 12-week annualized average through August 12).

Household leverage and debt servicing costs remain low, however. And although 90+ day credit card and subprime auto loan delinquencies remain elevated relative to historical levels, in the case of credit cards, this partially reflects older loans that have been charged off (i.e. the lender has removed the debt from its balance sheet, deeming it unrecoverable).

Employment

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000 in August, well above expectations, and were revised higher in both July and June. The increase in payrolls largely reflected a rebound in leisure and hospitality (+62,000) and local government education (+42,000)—as both sectors normalized after recent large declines—as well as continued strength in healthcare and construction.

After upward revisions to the two prior months, the three-month average of payroll growth stands at 71,000 (vs. 20,000 prior to the September 4 payroll data report). Goldman Sachs Research’s estimate of the underlying pace of job growth based on the payroll and household surveys now stands at 53,000 (vs. 5,000 prior to the September 4 report).

The unemployment rate increased by 5 basis points to 4.14%, reflecting a 569,000 increase in household employment and a 683,000 increase in the size of the labor force. The labor force participation rate rose by 0.2 percentage points to 61.6% and now stands 0.5 percentage points below the January level when the benchmark revisions took effect, about 0.2 percentage points of which likely reflects composition effects.