January 6, 2023
In this edition of the Market Pulse, Marcus is excited to share insights from our colleagues in Goldman Sachs Asset Management’s Strategic Advisory Solutions and Global Investment Research, as they provide their expectations for the year ahead. You can also read the original version of this article here.
2022 was quite a year for the economy and the markets. If you’re wondering where all of it may be headed next, you’re in good company.
One big question remains: Can overheated inflation be cooled without a recession?
Here are some expert insights to fuel your conversations:
Slowing, not stopping, our roll? Some investors and even experts may be underestimating the resilience of the US economy. Yes, Europe is already in a mild recession and China’s having a bumpy reopening.
But could the US cool its own overheated inflation without a recession? Our colleagues in Global Investment Research suggest that’s feasible: A long enough period of slower, but still positive, GDP growth may gradually help balance labor demand and supply and get control over prices. But we have much further to go down this challenging road in 2023.
The path could still be rocky… We’re likely to see inflation slowly cooling in 2023, especially in the important areas of housing and wages. Supply chains are flowing better, which will help, and they could improve even more if China works out a more flexible COVID-19 policy.
But if wages keep growing quickly and consumers start to think high inflation is here to stay (i.e., long-term inflation expectations rise), the Fed may have to work harder for longer to get prices under control.
…With a boulder or two. The supply challenges that contributed to this inflationary period aren’t easy to solve. Many are structural and long-term, based on years of underinvestment, especially for physical commodities.
Commodity supply may also continue to be held back by higher interest rates, recessionary worries and the strength of the US dollar – which may persist in the face of slow global growth or relax as global growth and inflation issues improve.
We’re not alone. Sticky inflation isn’t just a US concern; it’s the major worry of consumers and investors worldwide. Our Federal Reserve is only one of the world’s major central banks focused on raising rates right now. With supply strained, the central banks’ goal is to moderate demand (by limiting credit) and create a better, less-inflationary balance between the two.
In the US, our Research colleagues expect the Fed to hike the Fed funds rate target up to 5-5.25%, with no cuts in 2023.
Uncertainty is almost certain. We go into 2023 with a divided government – the presidency and Senate in the hands of Democrats and the House led by a Republican majority – which can make it harder for lawmakers to agree on bipartisan legislation.
Add unresolved global issues to potential domestic conflicts, and geopolitics is likely to continue to be a source of uncertainty in 2023.
This article is for informational purposes only and is not a substitute for individualized professional advice. Individuals should consult their own tax advisor for matters specific to their own taxes and nothing communicated to you herein should be considered tax advice. This article was prepared by and approved by Marcus by Goldman Sachs, but does not reflect the institutional opinions of Goldman Sachs Bank USA, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. or any of their affiliates, subsidiaries or division. Goldman Sachs Bank USA does not provide any financial, economic, legal, accounting, tax or other recommendation in this article. Information and opinions expressed in this article are as of the date of this material only and subject to change without notice. Information contained in this article does not constitute the provision of investment advice by Goldman Sachs Bank USA or any its affiliates. Neither Goldman Sachs Bank USA nor any of its affiliates makes any representations or warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or any information contained in this document and any liability therefore is expressly disclaimed.
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